Student Visa Boom in Australia: Record-Breaking Student Visa Grants

Introduction

Despite initial outcry from university lobby groups following the announcement of Ministerial Direction 111, their voices have since fallen silent. The reason? The latest student visa data tells a surprising story.

Record-Breaking Offshore Student Visa Grants

New data from November and December 2024 shows that offshore student visa grants for higher education have hit an all-time high, surpassing even the records of late 2022. The feared visa caps, once a major concern among university lobbyists, appear to be non-existent.

While the total offshore student visa grants slightly decreased from 2022, they remain higher than in 2023. If this upward trend continues into January 2025, it may indicate that the Treasury’s net migration forecast of 340,000 for 2024-25 is still an underestimation. This raises an important policy debate—would the previously proposed student caps have resulted in a higher or lower net migration outcome?

Offshore Student Visa Trends by Country

A closer look at December 2024 offshore student visa approvals compared to December 2023 reveals:

• China: Increased to 6,855 (up from 6,574) with a 95.7% grant rate.

• India: Increased to 3,410 (up from 2,523) with an 87.3% grant rate.

  
  

• Nepal: Increased to 834 (up from 781) with an 85.6% grant rate.

• Pakistan: Increased to 254 (up from 129) with a 61.5% grant rate.

• Philippines: Decreased to 382 (down from 741) with an 87.8% grant rate.

• Vietnam: Decreased to 907 (down from 1,105) with an 85.3% grant rate.

• Colombia: Decreased to 196 (down from 640) with an 83.4% grant rate.

Onshore Student Visa Challenges

December 2024 saw 8,890 onshore student visa applications. While lower than the peak seen between June and September 2024, the backlog remains substantial—likely exceeding 100,000 applications.

Visa approvals for onshore applicants in December 2024 totaled 8,881, with:

• 3,095 grants for higher education primary applicants.

• 3,363 grants for vocational education and training (VET) primary applicants.

The VET sector continues to recruit a higher proportion of students from onshore sources, a trend often criticized as "poaching."

However, the overall onshore grant rate has plummeted:

• 78.2% in December 2024 (compared to 93.0% in December 2023 and 99.0% in December 2022).

This decline is contributing to a growing number of appeals to the Administrative Review Tribunal (A.R.T.), further straining the system.

The Policy Dilemma and Future Outlook

A major issue remains unresolved—far more students, temporary graduates, skilled workers, and working holidaymakers are seeking permanent residency than there are available places. This is a classic consequence of a student visa boom.

Historically, governments have responded swiftly to such booms, but the current administration has been slow to implement further restrictions. While additional policy tightening is likely, it may be delayed until after the upcoming election.