Dutton's Migration Plan Explained | Australia Immigration Update
In his Budget reply, Peter Dutton proposed significant cuts to Australia's permanent migration program, aiming to reduce the intake from 185,000 to 140,000. He also plans to maintain a two-thirds to one-third balance in favor of the skill stream, reducing net migration to 160,000. This move has sparked concerns about its impact on various sectors and potential backlash from the migrant community.
Family Stream Reductions
The family stream, planned at 52,500 for 2024-25, would see a reduction of around 6,200 visas under Dutton's plan, resulting in a new cap of 46,300. However, the Migration Act mandates that partner and child visas be managed based on demand, making it legally challenging to limit these visas.
As demand for partner visas rises due to an increase in younger temporary entrants and more Australians traveling overseas, Dutton may face difficulties enforcing these cuts without significant media scrutiny.
The only family visas Dutton could legally reduce are the 8,500 places for parents and 500 for other family members. With a massive 30-year backlog for permanent parent visas, reducing these caps could lead to substantial backlash from Australia's migrant community. Despite this, Dutton's commitment to maintaining the program's ratio will likely force him to reveal these cuts, sparking widespread discontent.
Skill Stream Reductions
Reducing the skill stream from 132,500 to 93,400 would have a significant impact on the budget, particularly given Treasury's reliance on increased skill migration for budget offsets. Dutton is unlikely to limit employer-sponsored migration due to its economic benefits and strong business support. Similarly, the Regional Visa, supported by Nationals Leader David Littleproud, will remain untouched.
Instead, Dutton will likely target the Skilled Independent visa and the State/Territory Nominated visa. However, cutting these categories too deeply will affect Australia's ability to recruit essential workers in health, education, IT, and construction. For instance, in 2022-23, over 5,360 registered nurses and around 600 medical practitioners migrated to Australia through the Skilled Independent category. Cutting this category would not only harm the budget and economy but also strain the healthcare system.
Pacific Engagement Visa (PEV)
Dutton may consider abolishing the new Pacific Engagement Visa (PEV), which is not counted in the permanent migration program despite being a permanent visa. This decision could provoke backlash from Pacific Island nations, but Dutton might deem it a manageable consequence.
Implications for Net Migration
Historically, the contribution of the permanent migration and humanitarian programs to net migration ranged from 70,000 to 85,000. Dutton's proposed cuts could reduce this contribution to around 65,000, mainly impacting those who secure permanent migration after many years in Australia and are already counted in net migration. In contrast, the Labor Government aims for the permanent migration intake to contribute around 90,000 to net migration due to a larger Humanitarian Program and the PEV, which primarily go to offshore applicants.
Impact on Housing
Dutton claims his cuts will free up 100,000 homes, including 40,000 in the first year. The accuracy of this calculation is unclear, and he may be relying on his voters not scrutinizing the details.
Dutton's proposed migration cuts are poised to trigger significant backlash, particularly from the migrant community affected by reduced family visas. Additionally, the reduction in skilled migration could have economic repercussions, particularly in critical sectors like healthcare. As these plans unfold, the broader implications for Australia's economy and social fabric will become increasingly evident.
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