Dutton’s Migration Cuts: Why This Promise Won’t Deliver

Overview of Migration Target Promises

Peter Dutton’s promise to reduce Australia’s permanent migration program by 45,000—from 185,000 to 140,000—has sparked significant debate. Despite being a key feature of his election campaign, the feasibility of this commitment remains doubtful. A deeper analysis reveals that such a reduction would have minimal impact on net migration while creating significant challenges for both the economy and visa processing.

Challenges with Family Stream Cuts

One of the proposed measures to achieve this reduction involves cutting the family stream, particularly parent visas. However, this strategy has significant drawbacks:

• Parent Visa Backlog: With a waiting list exceeding 100,000 and delays approaching 30 years, reducing parent visas from 7,500 to around 1,000 would likely result in public backlash.
• Partner Visas: Cutting partner visas is even more complex due to legal constraints under the Migration Act (S85 and S87), which mandate demand-driven management.
• Backlog Management Issues: The backlog for partner visas is projected to surpass 100,000 by the end of 2024-25. Without allocating more places to partner visas, a legal challenge or scrutiny from the auditor-general could force the government to act.

Skill Stream Limitations

Reducing the migration program to 140,000 would necessitate cutting the skill stream from 132,200 to 60,200. However, this approach faces several hurdles:

• Regional Visas: Strong demand for regional visas requires at least 33,000 places, as reductions would likely face resistance from the Nationals.
• Employer-Sponsored Visas: Historically uncapped, these visas are vital to addressing Australia’s labor shortages, especially with nearly 200,000 temporary employer-sponsored visa holders eligible for permanent pathways.
• State-Nominated Visas: Cutting the 33,000 state-nominated visas would strain relations with state governments relying on these visas to fill critical roles in health, education, and construction.
• Skilled Independent Category: Already reduced significantly, further cuts could impact essential occupations such as registered nurses, a major category in the skilled independent stream.

Economic and Political Implications

Dutton’s proposal not only risks economic disruption by reducing skilled migration but also creates political challenges. The construction sector, for instance, requires additional migration to meet workforce demands, with shortages estimated at 100,000 workers. Meeting these needs would necessitate increasing, not cutting, migration targets.

Conclusion: A Questionable Election Pledge

The promise to reduce the migration program to 140,000 appears more focused on political rhetoric than on practical outcomes. With legal, economic, and operational constraints, implementing this target would likely be unfeasible without severe repercussions. As the next election approaches, it remains uncertain how Dutton plans to reconcile these challenges with his migration policy promises.