Australia's Migration Numbers Drop | Australia Immigration News

Net overseas migration (NOM) – a figure that tracks arrivals and departures – was 107,300 for the December quarter. While that is lower than the year before, it is not low enough to meet Treasury's projection in last month's budget, which was 395,000 for the full financial year about to end.

Data for half of that year is now available, and the running tally is at 252,000 — well past halfway. This suggests that the annual NOM might exceed Treasury's forecast, creating a potential challenge for the government.

Government's Efforts to Curb International Students

The government has been quick to claim the figures are only starting to show the effects of its efforts to curb international students via a crackdown on dodgy providers. However, former senior immigration official told the ABC he saw "little to no chance" the Treasury forecast would be met. The December quarter figure would be higher than the government would have been hoping for given the large net departure of students in that quarter," he said.

Gap Between Politics and Policy

This scenario presents a headache for the government, which has used the Treasury forecasts to argue it is bringing migration down from the record levels reached in 2022-23. Net migration in that year exceeded half a million, largely because of a 'catch-up' effect from the pandemic migration slump.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has used that record-high figure to mount a political argument about the cost of living and has promised to reduce the numbers of permanent and temporary migrants. But despite the heated politics, governments have minimal control over net migration.

Limited Government Control Over Migration

Most of the main entry streams are not capped, including international students and temporary workers. And where governments have sought to impose limits, they have encountered business anger and warnings of economic damage. As well as arrivals, the net migration figure is also affected by departures. The last few years have seen unusually few temporary migrants departing, a direct consequence of the Morrison government's pandemic-era decision to extend visas to encourage people to stay to support the economy.

Comings and Goings of Australian Residents

Finally, there's also the comings and goings of Australian residents, another aspect the government has no capacity or reason to control. Surprisingly large number of Australians who had been living overseas have arrived back in the past year. "That will ensure net migration remains high in 2023-24," he said.

NOM: Not Overly Meaningful?

ANU Professor Alan Gamlen, a migration expert, told the ABC that these many and varied determinants meant NOM was not a useful way to track migrant numbers. "You can and will find some of the country's leading experts in this area disagreeing on what drives NOM, and that's why it's not a good policy target. It's a derivative of an underlying basket of a bunch of different things. Derivatives are unreliable and they're unpredictable."

The Real Migration Story

Professor Gamlen argued the focus on the surge in NOM was obscuring the fact that Australia actually has fewer migrants present in the country compared to the pre-pandemic trend, because the pandemic slump was much larger and much longer than the subsequent surge. "NOM is going to stabilise of its own accord, and it's going to stabilise without a need for aggressive, rollercoaster migration policy," he said. "The big story here is that there's been much less migration than we expected since the pandemic started, not much more migration. And the focus on NOM has confused that."

The discrepancy between the government's migration forecasts and the actual figures highlights the complexity of managing migration policy. While the government aims to bring down migration numbers, various factors, including international students, temporary workers, and returning Australian residents, complicate the scenario. This ongoing debate underscores the need for a nuanced approach to migration policy that considers both economic needs and social impacts.