Student Visa Surge: Australia's Migration Milestone Unveiled
A pivotal moment has emerged in the realm of student visas and net migration, as evidenced by recent developments. The Australian government finds itself at a crossroads, compelled to contemplate policy adjustments amid a surge in the number of student visa holders departing the country, as highlighted by recent observations.
Forecasts predicting a historic peak in the tally of student visa holders, surpassing 700,000, came to fruition following the Australian Bureau of Statistics' revelation of a net student migration figure exceeding 147,000 in February 2024.
Furthermore, the overall count of temporary visa holders in Australia reached an unprecedented high of 2.814 million. However, the noteworthy revelation was the noticeable decline in offshore student visa applications compared to previous February statistics.
By the end of February 2024, the total number of student visa holders reached 713,144, continuing a longstanding trend that only momentarily paused during COVID-induced border closures. This trend substantially contributed to the record net migration observed in the twelve months leading up to September 2023.
Despite substantial tightening of student visa policies since July 1, 2023, and further adjustments in March 2024, the trajectory of increasing numbers of student visa holders in Australia appears unyielding, barring significant policy alterations or an extraordinary downturn in the labor market.
Nevertheless, February 2024 witnessed a marked weakening in offshore student visa applications for the first time since the reopening of international borders. This departure from the norm was conspicuous, with February 2024 figures (21,652) significantly lower than those of the same month in 2023 (36,878), February 2022 (27,183), and the pre-COVID peak of 22,809.
Anticipating the impact of additional policy adjustments in March 2024, it is probable that offshore applications for March 2024 will dip below the levels observed in March 2023 (31,404) and March 2022 (27,198), possibly even below the pre-COVID zenith of 16,509.
As expected, the number of offshore student visa grants in February 2024 (22,646) fell substantially below the figure for February 2023 (33,848) but remained higher than that of February 2022 (18,964), a period marked by significant government incentives such as fee waivers and unrestricted work privileges.
The pivotal shift witnessed in February 2024 regarding offshore student applications did not mirror onshore trends, where application rates remained robust. Despite significant policy alterations, February 2024 recorded 21,646 onshore student applications, a resilience that may have caught the government off guard.
Since the extensive backlog clearance exercise in November/December 2022, onshore student applications have surpassed grants, indicating a resurgence in the backlog, potentially leading to a steady increase in bridging visa numbers.
The government's strategy of tightening policies, including the implementation of the "no further stay" condition on visitor visas, aims to curb the surge in onshore student applications. However, its effectiveness remains uncertain.
Moreover, a resurgence in the number of temporary graduates in Australia is evident. While a robust labor market may facilitate the transition of temporary graduates into skilled positions and eventual permanent residency, a weaker labor market poses risks, potentially leaving a substantial portion of temporary graduates in immigration limbo, alongside remaining COVID-era visa holders.
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