Australia’s Migration Dilemma: Temporary Entrants Down, What’s Next

Recent data on temporary entrants shows a decrease in net migration, though it may be premature for the government to declare a victory. The latest figures reveal that the number of temporary entrants in Australia dropped from 2.83 million at the end of March 2024 to 2.69 million by the end of June 2024.

Typically, the June quarter experiences a dip in temporary entry numbers, but this decline might be more significant than anticipated. The reduction was primarily due to a decrease in visitors, with 66,000 fewer reported as expected during the Australian winter. However, there were also notable drops in:

• Students, from 671,359 at the end of March 2024 to 608,262 by the end of June 2024
• Working holidaymakers, from 183,668 to 173,216
• Other temporary residents on employment visas, from 171,013 to 145,112

Conversely, there were significant increases in:

• Skilled temporary entrants, from 153,991 to 168,725
• Temporary graduates, from 199,897 to 216,494
• Bridging visa holders, from 286,293 to 297,372

The net permanent and long-term movements for April and May 2024 totaled 47,710. The estimate for June is not yet available but may show a small positive or negative change.

Trends in Student and Temporary Graduate Numbers

The reduction in student numbers during the June quarter 2024 likely stems from several factors:

• Permanent departures, particularly among students from China
• Returning home for the end of semester and planning to come back for the next term
• Delays in securing new student or temporary graduate visas due to a backlog in bridging visas
• Obtaining a temporary graduate visa in June

By the end of September 2024, the number of student visa holders is expected to increase due to:

• Returning students
• A surge in offshore student visa grants from June 2024
• Onshore applicants in the bridging visa backlog receiving student visas in July and August 2024

At the end of September 2023, there were 664,178 student visa holders. This number is expected to be slightly higher at the end of September 2024, though growth will be slower compared to the previous year. Despite slower growth, the number of international students is not expected to decline as the government targets a long-term net migration of 235,000 annually.

The number of temporary graduates has risen significantly since borders reopened in early 2022, from 95,259 to 216,494 by June 2024. Growth in this group is typically strong during the June and December quarters.

To address the rising number of individuals in immigration limbo, the government will need to manage this growth and consider further policy adjustments. This may include tightening eligibility for temporary graduate visas to focus on courses in high demand, such as health, education, and IT.

Additionally, addressing quality issues in Australia’s international education sector and adjusting working holidaymaker policies will be crucial for meeting migration targets. Proposals to cut the permanent migration program could exacerbate the issue, potentially leaving more individuals stuck in immigration limbo.